"Band-aid on rotting flesh"

Two days ago, Hong Kong's Chief Executive Carrie Lam finally withdrew the hated extradition bill. It was a great humiliation for Lam. But, if she expected a favorable reaction from the protesters, who have been out on the streets for three months, she didn't get it. Their spokesperson promptly remarked that the withdrawal was like placing a "band-aid on rotting flesh".

The protesters have five demands: withdrawal of the extradition bill, Lam to step down, an inquiry into police brutality, for those who have been arrested to be released, and greater democratic freedoms.  Only the first had been met.

Under the "one country, two systems" which began in 1997, when Britain handed Hong Kong back to China, Hong Kong is guaranteed a high degree of autonomy till 2047, only defense and foreign affairs coming under China. But, over the years, China has attempted to enforce its will in a number of ways.

• 2003: a draconian National Security Bill. Suspended after mass protests.
• 2012: a "Moral and National Education" syllabus for schools, an attempt to brainwash Hong Kong students into loving Mainland China. Withdrawn after protests.
• 2014: proposals for  a carefully-controlled Election Committee that would nominate candidates for the Hong Kong people to choose from. This triggered the Occupy ("umbrella") movement, which shut down a section of downtown for nearly three months. The proposals failed when the required 2/3 majority in Legislative Council was not reached.
• 2019: the "Extradition and Mutual Legal Assistance" bill, to allow extradition of Hong Kong suspects to the Mainland and the freezing of their assets in Hong Kong. This would breach the firewall between the two judicial systems. Withdrawn.

What this goes to show is that China has learned nothing about Hong Kong people in 16 years, since 2003. Its Hong Kong advisers, and the Hong Kong shoe shiners who support and advice China, get it wrong again and again.

The withdrawal of the extradition bill has been a huge loss of face for China, too. Then, why did they allow it? October 1 is a big day for China, the 70th anniversary of the establishment of the Peoples' Republic. Huge celebrations are planned. The massive protests in Hong Kong, drawing international attention, would not look good. Chinese troops in Hong Kong at this time would draw worldwide criticism.

But, what is likely to happen after the birthday party is over? Unless the protests die down, I fear a Tiananmen type crackdown, with Chines troops marching onto Hong Kong streets. Blood will be shed.